The journey to the top of basketball’s Mount Everest begins tonight in Oakland.
Both the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers are starving for a title. Golden State has not won a championship since 1975 when they were led by another elite shooter, underhand free-throw shooting Rick Barry. Cleveland is still chasing the first championship in franchise history.
The “golden” boys really took the league by storm this year. Led by league MVP Stephen “Chef” Curry, Golden State carried forth dominant outside shooting, passing, and team defense from the beginning of the year through the rigorous Western Conference playoffs. Golden State’s performance this year has earned the team praise as an all-time great (see Nate Silver’s piece).
The Cleveland Cavaliers season has been about rebuilding the kingdom. When LeBron “King” James returned to Cleveland this summer, the roster was full of incompatible pieces. After an early to mid-season campaign of chemistry building and trades, Cleveland polished into the league’s best team in the 2nd half of the season. Despite losing Kevin Love and Kyrie “Uncle Drew” Irving (briefly) through the playoff run, Cleveland ran through the comparatively weaker Eastern Conference.
This sets up a very competitive and intriguing Finals match-up. There are several factors I weighed in predicting the series:
Experience
Golden State does not have a single player on their roster with championship experience. However, their coach, Steve Kerr, was a role player on 5 championship teams (3 with the Bulls, 2 with the Spurs). Kerr has valuable insight into the championship make-up of all-time great players, from Michael Jordan to Tim Duncan, and coaches, namely Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich.
Cleveland holds vice-versa. Their coach, David Blatt, is a novice to this stage of NBA competition despite winning abroad in Europe and Israel. However, several players on Cleveland’s roster have championship experience and rings: James, James Jones, Shawn Marion, Mike Miller, and Kendrick Perkins.
Health Concerns
The injury reports building up to the Finals have centered on Uncle Drew and Klay Thompson. The latest report from CBS states that both will suit up for Game 1. The report paints a very optimistic picture of Thompson, who seems to be reaching full recovery from a concussion suffered against Houston. As for Irving, it sounds like his knee injury has not fully recovered, but he intends tough it out.
Offensive & Defensive Efficiency
During the playoffs, the Cavaliers have performed more efficiently on offense and defense, albeit against weaker teams in the East. This is according to ESPN’s John Hollinger’s team statistics based on points scored and allowed per 100 possessions (seen here).
Cleveland: 108.6 (Off, rank: 1st), 98.5 (Def, rank: 3rd)
Golden State: 107.3 (Off, rank: 2nd), 98.9 (Def, rank: 4th)
Team Depth
The Warriors have consistently played 9 guys throughout their playoff run: Curry, Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green, Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, Shawn Livingston, Leandro Barbosa, and Festus Ezeli. They have also played Justin Holiday, David Lee, James Michael McAdoo, Brandon Rush and Mareese Speights for limited stretches. (see Golden State’s stats)
The Cavaliers have relied consistently, and heavily, on 7 players through their playoff run: James, Irving, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumphert, Timofey Mozgov, and Matthew Dellavedova. The Cavs lost Kevin Love from their consistent rotation during the first round series against Boston. They have sparingly played Joe Harris, Brendan Haywood, James Jones, Shawn Marion, Mike Miller, and Kendrick Perkins. (see Cleveland’s stats)
The Warriors consistent reliance on a few more guys gives them my nod in this department.
Key Match-ups to Watch
- Andrew Bogut & Draymond Green vs Tristan Thompson & Timofey Mozgov (especially in rebounding)
- Chef Curry vs Uncle Drew
- Shumphert vs. Iguodala (especially in defensive impact)
- Klay Thompson vs. J.R. Smith
Key Questions to be Answered
- How will Golden State guard King James?
- How effective will Draymond Green be in countering James’ all-around play?
- How will Golden State contain Tristan Thompson, especially in offensive rebounding?
- Can Cleveland’s bench produce as much impact as Golden State’s?
- Will Irving be healthy enough to counter Curry’s production?
Thoughts:
I predict Cleveland will win the NBA championship in 6 games.
I watched both teams somewhat closely throughout the year. The trend that caught my eye throughout the year was Curry and Thompson’s (and, as a result, Golden State’s) struggles when a defender limited their space to operate and got increasingly physical with them. This happened primarily during regular season games against Cleveland (the game LeBron played) and San Antonio.
While Curry and Thompson have shot well for most of the postseason, their struggles against Memphis, when Tony Allen and Mike Conley were healthy, reminded me of that trend.
Cleveland’s defensive improvements during the postseason will make it very difficult on not only the Splash Brothers shooting, but on Golden State’s team offense.
Irving’s health concerns me for defensive purposes. If he isn’t nearly 100% then it will force Cleveland to place added emphasis on help defense on Curry.
King James presents the biggest mismatch in the series. Despite his inefficient shooting in these playoffs, I think he is poised for an efficient and all-around dominant Finals series.
The question is how will Steve Kerr defend King James. If Kerr decides to stick Draymond Green on James then that leaves Tristan Thompson with an advantage near the basket. If Kerr elects to use a combination of Barnes, Iguodala, Thompson, and, maybe Shawn Livingston then that leaves LeBron with a strength and size advantage (which LeBron will likely exploit in post-up play).
While it is true that Golden State is a deeper team, especially at the end of the bench, Cleveland can offset such advantage with their ability to counter and defend Golden State’s key players.
I also think that the experience of the championship winners on Cleveland’s roster will bode well for the team in the initial stages of the Finals. Golden State’s players will be more affected by nerves and the unexpected, which will put early pressure on the team to perform.
I look forward to an exciting Finals match-up that will leave one of these franchises with a long-awaited championship.
