Photo credit: The Washington Post
I have always wondered what elements go into a successful NBA basketball team. In the modern era, defined as the time since the NBA instituted a rule eliminating hand checking (as noted here on Bleacher Report), success has often been defined by how efficient and skillful your team performs rather than use of physicality. For example, ESPN’s Max Kellerman (see the first 40 seconds of this video) attributed the reasons James Harden has been so successful in recent NBA history to his ability to shoot efficiently from two and three-point range and make free throws (among other reasons). So I decided to look at how true such a perception is as well as how having the best talent impacts championship outcomes.
Methods
I took some data from Basketball Reference starting with the 2004-05 NBA season until the 2018-19 season and did some regression analysis using STATA (see appendices for more information). For each season, I used the following criteria for identifying 4 teams (60 total) for this analysis:
- Champion
- Most Regular Season Wins
- Runner-Up
- Team with MVP
- Conference Finals Berth (Remaining team with most wins)
- Conference Finals Berth (Remaining team with least wins)
The idea was to move successively down criteria until all four slots were selected. In developing the following predictors, I tried to use my judgment and some prevailing wisdom as to what constitute a good shooting percentage:
- Number of players selected to 1st-Team All-Defense
- Number of players selected to 1st-Team All-NBA
- Number of MVP award winners for that season (Regular Season; Maximum is one, of course)
- Number of 50% Two-Point Shooters (Regular Season) [1]
- Number of 35% Three-Point Shooters (Regular Season) [2]
- Number of 80% Free-Throw Shooters (Regular Season) [3]
I also included some averages for each of these predictors for each championship team (15 in total). So here’s what I found:
The average NBA champion has less than one 1st team All-NBA and All-Defense selections. Such a team has even fewer MVP award winners on its team. Despite such finding, having a 1st-Team All-Defense selection was found to have some statistical significance in predicting NBA champions. Having an MVP winner seemingly made it less likely that a team would win a championship but did not quite meet statistical significance. While having an MVP award winner came close, none of the other predictors approached statistical significance by social scientific standards.
So while it seems that the NBA has been in a new era from how the game is played and skills are valued, the old adage that “defense wins championships” seems to be relevant.
Appendix A. Championship Team Averages
| Championship Team Averages | |
| Variable | Number/Average |
| AllDefense | 0.73 |
| AllNBA | 0.73 |
| FreeThrow | 6.33 |
| MVP | 0.2 |
| ThreePoint | 6.93 |
| Teams | 15 |
| TwoPoint | 8.33 |
Compiled using “Summary statistics” function in STATA. Championship teams were then isolated from other teams by asking the system to compute averages only if the team won a championship.
Appendix B. Predictors of NBA Champion
| Predictors of NBA Champion | ||
| Variable | Coefficient | Significance |
| AllDefense | 0.182 | 0.059* |
| AllNBA | 0.122 | 0.35 |
| FreeThrow | 0.018 | 0.544 |
| MVP | -0.199 | 0.148 |
| ThreePoint | -0.024 | 0.402 |
| TwoPoint | 0.018 | 0.36 |
| *Significant at the 0.1 level |
Compiled using the “reg” function in STATA.
Some limitations of this method include whether I actually calculated things correctly (haha). More seriously, this analysis was based on regular season accomplishments, which do not factor in postseason performance that actually determines championship outcomes. The criteria is subject to my bias, which impacted the selection of observations for this analysis as well as percentage thresholds for some of the predictors. The analysis only used the best playoffs teams or ones with an MVP (i.e. 2017 Oklahoma City Thunder). So better playoffs teams, regular season teams, or other unsuccessful teams were left out (more on this below). Finally, a literature review was not included which could have guided my research in terms of existing knowledge and methods.
For those looking for more information, I also ran a correlation analysis between the predictors and can provide it upon request.
In short, this was a random scientific exercise and I was just having fun (*shrugs*).
Appendix C. NBA Teams Included in Analysis
| NBA Teams Included in Analysis | ||
| Season | Team | Selection Criteria |
| 2004-05 | San Antonio | Champion |
| 2004-05 | Phoenix | Most Regular Season Wins; Team with MVP |
| 2004-05 | Detroit | Runner-Up |
| 2004-05 | Miami | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2005-06 | Miami | Champion |
| 2005-06 | Detroit | Most Regular Season Wins |
| 2005-06 | Dallas | Runner-Up |
| 2005-06 | Phoenix | Team with MVP |
| 2006-07 | San Antonio | Champion |
| 2006-07 | Dallas | Most Regular Season Wins; Team with MVP |
| 2006-07 | Cleveland | Runner-Up |
| 2006-07 | Detroit | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2007-08 | Boston | Champion; Most Regular Season Wins |
| 2007-08 | Los Angeles (L) | Runner-Up; Team with MVP |
| 2007-08 | Detroit | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2007-08 | San Antonio | Conference Finals Berth (Less Wins) |
| 2008-09 | Los Angeles (L) | Champion |
| 2008-09 | Cleveland | Most Regular Season Wins; Team with MVP |
| 2008-09 | Orlando | Runner-Up |
| 2008-09 | Denver | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2009-10 | Los Angeles (L) | Champion |
| 2009-10 | Cleveland | Most Regular Season Wins; Team with MVP |
| 2009-10 | Boston | Runner-Up |
| 2009-10 | Orlando | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2010-11 | Dallas | Champion |
| 2010-11 | Chicago | Most Regular Season Wins; Team with MVP |
| 2010-11 | Miami | Runner-Up |
| 2010-11 | Oklahoma City | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2011-12 | Miami | Champion; Team with MVP |
| 2011-12 | Chicago | Most Regular Season Wins |
| 2011-12 | Oklahoma City | Runner-Up |
| 2011-12 | San Antonio | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2012-13 | Miami | Champion; Most Regular Season Wins; Team with MVP |
| 2012-13 | San Antonio | Runner-Up |
| 2012-13 | Memphis | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2012-13 | Indiana | Conference Finals Berth (Less Wins) |
| 2013-14 | San Antonio | Champion; Most Regular Season Wins |
| 2013-14 | Miami | Runner-Up |
| 2013-14 | Oklahoma City | Team with MVP |
| 2013-14 | Indiana | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2014-15 | Golden State | Champion; Most Regular Season Wins; Team with MVP |
| 2014-15 | Cleveland | Runner-Up |
| 2014-15 | Atlanta | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2014-15 | Houston | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2015-16 | Cleveland | Champion |
| 2015-16 | Golden State | Most Regular Season Wins; Runner-Up; Team with MVP |
| 2015-16 | Toronto | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2015-16 | Oklahoma City | Conference Finals Berth (Less Wins) |
| 2016-17 | Golden State | Champion; Most Regular Season Wins |
| 2016-17 | Cleveland | Runner-Up |
| 2016-17 | Oklahoma City | Team with MVP |
| 2016-17 | San Antonio | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2017-18 | Golden State | Champion |
| 2017-18 | Houston | Most Regular Season Wins; Team with MVP |
| 2017-18 | Cleveland | Runner-Up |
| 2017-18 | Boston | Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2018-19 | Toronto | Champion |
| 2018-19 | Milwaukee | Most Regular Season Wins; Team with MVP; Conference Finals Berth (More Wins) |
| 2018-19 | Golden State | Runner-Up |
| 2018-19 | Portland | Conference Finals Berth (Less Wins) |
A few notable teams left out of analysis: 2012-2013 Oklahoma City Thunder; 2005-06, 2010-11, & 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs; 2008-09 Boston Celtics; and the 2010-11 Los Angeles Lakers.
Please let me know if you have any comments, concerns, or questions. My e-mail address is tambamondeh@gmail.com. Thanks!
